Views from the Ledge

Brant Walker, Chief Investment Strategist 10/1/2022
Grey Ledge Advisors

Fixed Income Market:

What We’re Seeing: The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) continues to increase short term interest rates in 2022 to quell inflation.  High inflation reduces purchasing power as prices of goods and services continue to rise.  High quality, short term fixed income instruments (CD’s, Treasury bonds) can now be purchased with yields of 4% or higher.  The Fed is telegraphing further rate increases in 2022 and early 2023 until inflation drops to a range of 2% to 3%.  Long term interest rates have not increased in tandem with short term rates as the market believes an economic recession is likely to occur between now and early 2023.  If such is the case, long term interest rates would likely drop from current levels as demand for goods and services decreases and the unemployment rate increases.  

What We’re Doing: As such, Grey Ledge Advisors is shifting some of our fixed income holdings from short term instruments to longer term instruments.  This will lock in current yields and allow for price appreciation in the longer-term instruments should a recession occur, causing longer-term interest rates decline.

Equity market:

What We’re Seeing: The S&P 500 stock index is firmly in bear market territory closing in on a 25% peak to trough decline as of October 1st. Much of this downward movement is based on the interest rate scenario discussed above.  Simply put, when interest rates rise, the future value of corporate earnings and dividends diminishes.  The fear of a possible economic recession is weighing heavily as well as recessions temporarily reduce a corporation’s earnings power.  Grey Ledge’s focus on high quality investments has acted as a ballast in many portfolios and we would expect this to continue should the stock market continue to struggle.  At the same time, many high- quality companies in more cyclical industries, think technology and consumer discretionary companies, have seen their stocks decline by 50% or higher since late last year.  

What We’re Doing: We will be looking to shift, on the margin, away from some of the stable earning companies (food and beverage, health care, etc.) that have held value relatively well in favor of more cyclical companies in the technology and consumer discretionary sectors.  Our focus will continue to be on the highest quality companies when making any tactical changes.

If you would like to learn more about our rotation to the Tech Sector, please listen to our latest Thoughts from The Ledge podcast https://www.greyledge.com/podcast.html